Operation Cast Lead (Days 6 - 10)

Update 04 January 2009 (Day 9): Last evening, as we are all by now very well aware, the assessment offered below occured precisely as offered. Following sustained, pin-point accurate artillery barrages the IDF ground component executed a massive incursion into the Gaza Strip. This incursion occured after the Sabbath sun had set over the horizon of the Mediterranean Sea. This is "Stage 2" of "Operation Cast Lead." Also exactly as offered in the assessment below the IDF ground forces have executed a three-pronged sectioning of Gaza, in effect isolating major elements of HAMAS' military force and preempting its combat capabilities as a single, cohesive fighting force. Except for unground bunkers and tunnels which may have escaped destruction in "Phase 1" HAMAS military forces are now defending themselves for a very disadvantageous position on the battlefield; their backs are to the depths of the Mediterranean with no realistic escape short of the embrace of eternal death or surrender to the hated "Zionist entity."

Prudently ever wary of the Iranian terrorist proxy Hezbollah to the north in Lebanon, Israeli MoD Ehud Barak stated yesterday, "While we are fighting in Gaza, we keep watch on the sensitive situation on our northern border. We have no aggressive intentions there. We hope the situation there will remain calm; nevertheless, we are ready to face any unwarranted development in that area." It is this analysts assessment that Defense Minister Barak's "hope" is nothing more than politically calculated cautious optimism and wishful thinking regarding the intentions of Hezbollah and their Islamic Republic of Iran leadership.

As of 18:35 Israel Standard Time (11:35 EST USA) today the IDF has lost one solider KIA. That soldier was 22-year old Staff Sergeant Dvir Immanuell who fell during a ground engagment near the town of Jabaliya, just north of Gaza City. Thus concludes the first 24 -hour period of ground warfare in the Gaza Strip.





01 January 2009: In preparation for the expected IDF ground offensive into Gaza the above detailed 2005 CIA map of Gaza will be quite useful for those who wish to keep pace with the operation. With improving weather conditions the ground action could commence within hours.

Aharon Etengoff at WeaponSurvey.com has posted a good forecast of what the IDF Gaza operation will likely look like once it goes into execution:

WeaponSurvey assesses the following parameters for a possible Gaza ground operation:

• 
  
  Pinpoint artillery strikes of specific targets.


• 
  
  IDF infantry, armor and engineering forces (with advanced air support) then enters the Gaza Strip and assumes control of specific areas.


• 
  
  The Strip is split into three sectors: north, south and center.


• 
  
  IDF forces seize control of the Philadephi route (along the Gaza-Egypt border, Rafah sector) and initiate search and destroy missions to eradicate any weapons smuggling tunnels that survived prior aerial bombardments.


• 
  
  IDF forces carve out a temporary security zone along the Gaza-Israel border.


• 
  
  IDF units in other parts of the Strip will be tasked with neutralizing terrorist infrastructure and carrying mass arrests of Hamas operatives.


• 
  
  IDF forces will encounter: IEDs, EFPs and an intricate tunnel network used to ferry supplies and Hamas operatives.


• 
  
  Palestinian terrorists can also be expected to counter IDF advances with small arms fire, grenades, anti-tank weapons, indigenously designed rockets, mortars and various types of explosives.


• 
  
  Initial Israeli casualties (first three-five days of operation) could range from 10-75 soldiers.


• 
  
  The IDF will be inclined to avoid potentially dangerous situations and will not needlessly endanger the lives of its soldiers to avoid collateral damage.

A Tactical Military Assessment

It is my expectation that the IDF will apply in Gaza the sum total of all the lessons learned in the recent U.S. military surge operation in Iraq and in its own summer 2006 operation in Lebanon, albeit on a relatively smaller scale. This means that the IDF will most likely concentrate its forces in select Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) located just outside the 1950 armistice line/border (see the map above). From these FOBs the IDF ground forces will conduct forays of overwhelming miltary power into areas with tactical speed and surprise. The result will likely be the decimation of HAMAS, Islamic Jihad, et al. of the terrorists infesting Gaza; just as the United States military decimated and utterly defeated al-Qa'ida in Iraq and associated terrorist groups. It is important to note here that the US surge battlefield tactic in Iraq was developed without an over-arching warfighting doctrine, but was developed independently, and wholly based upon the conditions on the ground in Iraq. Also, in executing this surge-like tactic Israel will be creating a political-military vacuum by its offensive ground operations over the next dozen or so weeks. Israel will most likely be filling that vacuum with Palestinians it believes it can trust in a future peace agreement. Therefore, my assessment is that Israel will likely follow up its military gains in Gaza by allowing Palestinian paramilitary forces loyal to Mahmoud Abbas and his faction of the Palestinian Authority to regain control of patches of ground in Gaza as HAMAS ands its terrorist allies are removed from them in the same manner as the US has done with Iraqi police and military forces in Iraq.

Of particular note is the word coming out from Iran that Ayatollah Khomenei has issued a decree (Kafer-e-Harbi) which is tantamount to an Iranian declaration of war against Israel. It is my assessment that this has always been the objective behind the seemingly insane and suicidal HAMAS missile and mortar barrage against Israeli civilian population centers over the past several months. As the Gaza operation develops, keep a wary eye on the West Bank as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and events in Damascus, Syria.