The Current Analysis and Assessment

UPDATE 07APR08: Turning Point 2

EXCERPTS

"Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared a state of emergency Monday following "a barrage of hundreds of missiles from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip," as the country's largest-ever emergency exercise, "Turning Point 2," continues. "

"During the exercise, rescue services will drill mass evacuations from "hit zones" - including chemical and biological attacks - and hospitals will drill their ability to treat thousands of "injured." "


UPDATE 06APR08: Once again we go to Debkafile for our Current Analysis and Assessment briefing update. This update predicts that General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will report to Congress on Tusday that Iran is waging war against America on the territory of Iraq; that British media are reporting that the U.S. is planning for imminent military strikes against the al-Quds/IRGC bases in Iran which are directly supporting the Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, and intimates the timing of these attacks is linked to the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group.

Again, the war is ongoing, and what has been assessed to occur next is a massive escalation in the type of warfare as well as the number of nations actively and overtly involved in regional combat operations.

I do expect a Hezbollah/Syrian preemptive strike on Israel as an integral part of the imminent escalation, a regional war, with a significant WMD element, particularly a chemical warfare assault upon Israel with a resultant nuclear response upon the city of Damascus.

Remain vigilent for terrorist events to occur within the U.S. Homeland - if you have not yet prepared for this inevitability then your immediate task order is obvious. There may be no further warning orders.



UPDATE 02APR08: Debkafile has a very interesting report atop its mainpage this morning:

Exclusive: Israel orders bio/chemical warfare masks redistributed, Damascus raises war alarm
April 2, 2008, 12:15 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israel’s security cabinet convened Wednesday, April 2, to examine the homeland’s preparedness for war. It decided to redistribute the bio/chemical warfare masks a few months after they were called in.
A few hours earlier, the London-based al Quds al-Arabi quoted Damascus officials as claiming that Israel is preparing a big attack on Syria and Hizballah. Syria was said to have ordered a partial call-up of its military reserves. The paper also reported that Hizballah had decided to postpone for the moment its plan to wreak its revenge on Israel for allegedly killing Imad Mughniyeh last month, so as not to provide Israel with a pretext for going to war against Syria and itself.
DEBKAfile reports too that last week, Damascus deployed two armored brigades on the Beirut-Damascus highway under the command of President Bashar Assad’s young brother Maher Assad, chief of the presidential guard. They were posted there to block the road in case Israeli armored columns attempted to reach Damascus through Lebanon.
Tuesday night, Israel’s home defense command scheduled April 6-10 a nationwide exercise to improve the home front’s readiness for emergencies. Warning sirens will be tested on April 8.
That day, too, defense minister Ehud Barak’s toured Israel’s northern border and reported “a great deal of activity on the other side.” He added:”…we are learning the lessons of the last war, Israel is the strongest country in the region and I would not advise anyone on the other side to test us.”
In their briefing to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday morning, intelligence officers confirmed intense Hizballah activity, much of it in South Lebanon by operatives in civilian disguise. The officers referred to the Lebanese Shiite terror group’s rearmament with more powerful and longer-range rockets.
On March 22, DEBKAfile first revealed that Hizballah had more trebled its pre-war rocket arsenal to 40,000.
“Some of the 40,000 rockets of Syrian and Iranian manufacture can hit Israeli targets as far south as Beersheba, 350 km. away. Not only has Tel Aviv come within range, but Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza can between them now cover most of Israel up to its southernmost tip at Eilat.
Damascus has also shipped to Hizballah quantities of anti-air weapons, including shoulder-borne rockets and scores of Russian-made anti-aircraft ZSU-100 automatic 14.4 mm caliber cannon, which are most effective against low-flying aircraft, helicopters and drones.

End of Debkafile report.

I have just completed my analysis on a series of related items.

Since the killing of long-time Hezbollah terrorist military commander Imad Mughniyeh (who was in all practicality an Iranian terrorist military commander of Lebanese origin), we have all been witness to the often reported 40-day period of mourning cited by these enemies of the Judeo-Christian West as their rational for the lack of an immediate retaliation against those who they claim were responsible for his death, namely Israel.

If calculated to commence from the end of Mughniyeh's funeral on 14 February, that 40-day period will conclude tomorrow, 25 March, and the promised Islamofascist retaliation could commence without further delay.

I think it a crucial point to note once again that Iran is the central driving force behind what ever enemy action occurs next. I believe the release of two messages ostensibly from Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden within days of the approaching end of Mughniyeh's mouring period is no accident or coincidence. I assess bin Laden's statements, directed specifically at the EU, Israel and the US, were driven by Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad as part of a long-planned, well-coordinated offensive against Israel, the European Union, the United States and our allies.

In the first message released on March 19th from bin Laden the focus is on Europe, addressed to all Europeans, but particularly to the Leftists and their Islamist allies within E.U. nations. I make a strong note here that not once is there a reference to Palestine or that conflict. Usama's frame of reference is the Danish cartoons to of Muhammed and E.U./NATO combat forces in the ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In this communique Usama has made, once again, a threat of war to upon nations whose culture and rule of law are meaningless to Islam. With this communique Usama bin Laden issued a defacto declaration of war against the European Union, and make no mistake, in effect, this is an Iranian declaration of war.

The very next day another message is released, the timing of the release being all important once again. This time the subject concerns the methodology Islam will use to "rescue" Palestine. Within the text of this communique from bin Laden I make an exceptional note that, unlike all previous communiques, a distinct change in the lexicon or selected vocabulary has occured. In this communique we now have references which mimic precisely the rhetoric that emanates from Ayatollah Khomeini and Mauhmud Ahmadi-Nejad. In this communique Usama has abandoned his historical references and subsituted in their place in five instances derivations of the word Zionist: "Zionist enemy, Zionist and Zionists." The word "Jews" received a couple of mentions.

In acute historical contrast to this note that in a September 2007 communique Usama bin Laden referenced "Jews" or "Jewish" four times and not once did he say "Zionist". In the communique of November 2004 we saw Usama bin Laden say "Israeli" and "Israelis," but not one reference to "Zionist" or "Zionists." And finally, in my troika of direct comparisons, we have the communique of November 2004. In this we see a total of ten references to "Jews", four references to "Israel", and one lone reference to "Jewish." This clearly reflects a decidely Iranian influence on the lexicon utilized by Usama bin Laden.

The war is imminent, and a final declaration has been issued which categorically states that the objective enemy of of this war is not the "Jews", or "Israel" per se, but the Zionists and their Crusader/American allies. We all know these words mean the same thing, it is the origin that is the focus.

I do not believe the blatant intent of these declarations or their intentional timing could be more obvious when placed into the analytical template I have utilized, particularly when placed side by side with the lexicon of their Iranian counterparts, and I say originators.

Here's an "as I was saying" UPDATE.